Apps

THE HUNCH GAME

The Hunch Game is a gamified prediction market for celebrity and media gossip. It is our first foray into building apps on top of Gnosis. Hunch Game provides an example of a customized application built on Gnosis, and highlights the need for such interfaces. Although celebrity gossip is outside of our interest comfort zone, we feel that it is incredibly important to understand and cater to the needs of users outside of the crypto space. The Hunch Game is nearly ready and can be launched in the first half of 2017 as an example Gnosis app.

predART

predART is an early stage idea to create prediction markets for pre-auction art valuation. We have received insights that such an application would be very useful for auction houses. These houses can save billions of dollars with prediction market insights into variables such as where to begin auction pricing, and how much profit to guarantee to sellers. We are excited to see and support a vast array of information gathering applications for industries.

Questionaire

This financial markets questionnaire is the result of an ongoing collaboration with Wedbush Securities. The initial application is a non-monetized prediction market based feedback application for securities research firms to get outside feedback on expected stock fundamentals. We hope that later iterations of this application will open the door to a new generation of financial markets, allowing for trading on a wide variety of stock fundamentals. This is an application that we believe can be truly transformative for financial markets in general. Having a continuous stream of information on fundamentals, and more accurate models using conditional markets, will hopefully result in more efficient markets and less shock.

Other Markets

Probability Estimates

Details: By properly incentivizing individuals and groups with unique information to participate, Gnosis is an indispensable tools to estimate probabilities of future events. Examples include probability estimates of current events and scientific discoveries. These markets greatly benefit from large initial subsidies which will provide liquidity for participants.

Market Size: Over 10 Billion, May be much larger over next decades

Gambling

Details: Gnosis is the future of gambling. Any sports gambling market, no matter the time frame or complexity, can be created using Gnosis. Unique examples include high frequency or conditional bets. Imagine watching a sports match and betting on whether or not a goal will be scored in the next minute. Gnosis will provide a common liquidity pool and pricing mechanism for a wide variety of betting applications.

Market Size: Over 1 Trillion

Financial Instruments

Details: Gnosis will enable entirely new classes of financial instruments, leading to more efficient markets and revenue models for market participants. Mirror instruments of any existing asset can be easily created. More uniquely, markets can be created directly on specific fundamentals, for example, the number of iPhones that will be sold in the next quarter. Conditional markets can also be created, asking questions such as “What will be the price of Apple stock be if the number of iPhones sold is greater than x.” Such markets will feed more accurate and granular information to markets, making them more efficient. They will also enable analysts to directly profit from their information.

Market Size: Over 1 Trillion

Insurance

Details: Gnosis can be used to create novel and more efficient forms of insurance. Markets will be created to estimate various insurance event risks. For example, “will this house flood?” This in effect, crowdsources actuarial work. Analysts may use complex models to automate participation in many markets. A smart contract which buys YES positions in the corresponding markets would be used by the insuree. These contracts would pay out in the case of an insurance event. Our oracle market would be used by claims inspectors to settle such markets. This method of disintermediation could drastically lower costs for insurees.

Market Size: Over 1 Trillion

Action Incentive

Details: Prediction markets can be used to incentivize actions (rather than to purely estimate the probability of an event). In this case an agent wishing to purchase an action creates a market asking “has a particular event occurred?” or “with this event occur at a particular date?” Following this, the creator heavily buys shares in the “No” outcome. Assume a participant comes along that believes they can implement the action described in the market. By buying shares (at low cost) in the market for “Yes” this participant is effectively guaranteeing payment if they can complete the action, resolving the market in their favor. One of our favorite applications of prediction markets uses this mechanism to make social or political impact. An example is a market asking, “Will this legislation be passed?” Political participants can donate to a fund which buys NO positions, effectively incentivizing someone to take action to promote the legislation. If the legislation does not pass, the contract profits and repeats. This can similarly be used to crowdsource nonprofit actions.

Market Size: Unknown

Governance

Details: Futarchy is a method of governance that uses markets to effectively make decisions. With Futarchy, markets are created asking the effect of a decision on a welfare metric. Decisions are made according to which market shows a greater outcome in this metric. For example, a corporation may use futarchy to decide whether or not to fire their CEO. Two markets would be created, one for the future stock price if the CEO is kept, and one for if they are fired. Upon market closure, the CEO is either kept or fired, depending on which market shows a higher future stock price. Market participants in the market for the enacted decision then either profit or incur a loss depending on the accuracy of their prediction. This method can be used for any type of governance, including nation states, corporation, DAO, or nonprofit entities.

Market Size: Unknown

Information Sales

Details: Prediction market applications for information sales can be broken into two major categories — sales of insider information, and sales of device data. The former is of incredibly high utility, but questionable morality and legality. The latter example of device data sales may result in more efficient IoT optimizations. An example of this application is smart cars participating in a market asking “what is the traffic speed at this location?” Such a market resembles a Waze for machine to machine interactions and could provide a profit opportunity for sensor devices and probability estimates usable to directly optimize IoT operations. We envision an exciting future of prediction markets used for machine to machine interactions, and AI participation in information economies.

Market Size: Unknown, Exponential Technologies