2017 has been a critical year for the blockchain development and we see that trend continue in 2018. The technology has not only gained more public awareness, but we could also observe tremendous token price jumps and a great number of ICOs which raised $3.88 billion in total last year. On the one hand, this indicates increased awareness and general interest in the technology, but as with any new and substantial technology, it of course also attracts scammers, untrustworthy companies, unregulated and bad token models. The Brooklyn Project aims to provide powerful tools in order to protect consumers and enhance token based networks. It's an industry-wide initiative to promote token-powered economic growth and consumer protection. With well-thought and reasonable regulation, the project will help bring blockchain technology to its full power.
We are strong supporters of the Brooklyn Project. By establishing a well thought and reasonable regulation, they can help bring blockchain technology to its full power.
To accelerate the process, we dedicated the second category of Gnosis X towards token transparency, which would finally lead to consumer protection. You could build prediction market use case focusing on the success of a token sale and gathering information on a fair token price, the estimated market cap, or just the general success of a project. Some example questions asked could be: "Will the team achieve the set milestones?", "Will the token sale reach its market cap?", "How fast will the tokens be sold out?", or "Will the average price of token X drop by XX% after a specified period?", and so on.
Google has already implemented a successful example which would fall in this category: They used prediction markets to forecast market capitalization prior to an initial public offering (IPO), and it forecasted Google's post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. Google's auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, while the final prediction market forecast was only 4% above it. Prediction markets hence proved to be successful in forecasting the value of stock prices and could hence also be used to evaluate token prices.
Corporate companies such as EA (Electronic Arts) or Microsoft have successfully used prediction markets for both quality assurance and project evaluation. Questions on topics like "Will project X meet its development roadmap?", or "How many bugs will be found in the smart contract?", or "How many active users will app X have by the end of the year?" could be asked to evaluate the success of any blockchain project.
We highly value transparency in the blockchain space, and thus hope for this category to contribute to the promotion of token-powered economic growth and consumer protection.
Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known as an expert on idea futures and markets. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets.
Patrick Berarducci is the Deputy General Counsel at ConsenSys and Co-Chair of The Brooklyn Project. Prior to joining ConsenSys, Pat co-founded a health-tech startup, where he worked as a software architect and full-stack developer.
Mark is the Co-founder and Spoke Lead at Frontier, a ConsenSys formation aiming at building a decentralized platform enabling the distribution and curation of premium quality research for institutions. Mark is also a Business Operations and Strategy Director at ConsenSys where he leads TokenWork, an R&D initiative around token business design.
Martin Köppelmann, Stefan George, and the Gnosis team will evaluate submissions.