Crowd Sourced Wisdom

Based on Ethereum — The next generation blockchain network.
Speculate on anything with an easy-to-use prediction market.

Token Auction

Gnosis token auction starts on April 24th, 17:00:00 GMT.

28
Days
23
Hours
46
Minutes

GNOSIS Apps

  • THE HUNCH GAME

    The Hunch Game is a gamified prediction market for celebrity and media gossip. It is our first foray into building apps on top of Gnosis. Hunch Game provides an example of a customized application built on Gnosis, and highlights the need for such interfaces. Although celebrity gossip is outside of our interest comfort zone, we feel that it is incredibly important to understand and cater to the needs of users outside of the crypto space. The Hunch Game is nearly ready and can be launched in the first half of 2017 as an example Gnosis app.

  • Price Discovery

    Prediction markets can be used for price discovery. One potential use case is a prediction market for pre-auction art valuation. We have received prediction market sourced data that such an application would be very useful for auction houses. These houses can save millions of dollars with prediction market insights into variables such as where to begin auction pricing, and how much profit to guarantee to sellers. We are excited to help facilitate information gathering applications for both traditional and new industries.

  • Financial Markets

    This financial markets questionnaire is the result of an ongoing collaboration with Wedbush Securities. The initial application is a non-monetized prediction market based feedback application for securities research firms to get outside feedback on expected stock fundamentals. We hope that later iterations of this application will open the door to a new generation of financial markets, allowing for trading on a wide variety of stock fundamentals. We believe that this is a development that could be truly transformational for financial markets in general: Having a continuous stream of information on fundamentals and more accurate models using conditional markets will hopefully result in more efficient markets and less volatility.

  • Sports Betting

    Sports betting is potentially a massive market opportunity for Gnosis. Traditionally underserved regions can be more effectively served with a decentralized platform and cryptocurrency on-ramps. Having an open platform with verifiable behavior introduces an incredible opportunity to bring a wide range of competing betting applications onto the same platform. On traditional platforms this proposition would be ludicrous, but decentralized platforms cannot change rules or offer preferential treatment, truly levelling the playing field. We can think of myriads of applications just like sports betting for which we would like to lower the barrier to entry for new competitors. Within the Gnosis framework we are aiming for a drop in cost by at least two orders of magnitude.

  • Insurance

    Gnosis will enable an evolution in the insurance market. Markets can be created for every event with uncertain outcome, while smart contracts can handle the policy. This disintermediates pricing and paperwork by crowdsourcing actuarial work and eliminating the need for costly middlemen. In addition, new forms of dynamic and micro-insurance products can be created using our infinitely flexible markets. We have created a mock up for a flight insurance app, and plan to pursue other opportunities in insurance.

  • Futarchy/Governance

    Futarchy is market based governance. Instead of asking legislature, or a board, markets are created to aggregate the best possible decision information. We have implemented smart contracts for Futarchy, have received a DEV grant to research cryptoeconomic situations, and have created a mock up for a governance app. We are excited to offer Gnosis based governance solutions to other projects in the space, and to explore opportunities in corporate and state governance.

Platform Layers

Top Layer

Application

(optional app fees)
Insurance
Gnosis can be used to create novel and more efficient forms of insurance. Markets will be created to estimate various insurance event risks. For example, “will this house flood?” This, in effect, crowdsources actuarial work. Analysts may use complex models to automate participation in many markets. A smart contract which buys YES positions in the corresponding markets would be used by the insuree. These contracts would pay out in the case of an insurance event. Our oracle market would be used by claims inspectors to settle such markets. This method of disintermediation could drastically lower costs for insurees.
Information Sales
Prediction market applications for information sales can be broken into two major categories — sales of insider information, and sales of device data. The former is of incredibly high utility, but of questionable morality and legality. The latter example of device data sales may result in more efficient IoT optimizations. An example of this application is smart cars participating in a market asking “what is the current speed of traffic at this location?” Such a market resembles a Waze for machine to machine interactions and could provide a profit opportunity for sensor devices and probability estimates usable to directly optimize IoT operations. We envision an exciting future of prediction markets used for machine to machine interactions, and AI participation in information economies.
Betting
Gnosis is the future of gambling. Any sports gambling market, no matter the time frame or complexity, can be created using Gnosis. Unique examples include high frequency or conditional bets. Imagine watching a sports match and betting on whether or not a goal will be scored in the next minute. Gnosis will provide a common liquidity pool and pricing mechanism for a wide variety of betting applications.
Middle Layer

Gnosis Services

(Fees payed by WIZ tokens)
Oracle Platform
Our oracle platform allows everyone to easily integrate new oracles into Gnosis and offer their oracles to the Gnosis community. Since every Ethereum account holder can become an oracle for every event, it becomes very easy to bootstrap prediction markets for every need.
Futarchy
Futarchy is a method of governance that uses markets to effectively make decisions. With Futarchy, markets are created asking the effect of a decision on a welfare metric. Decisions are made according to which market shows a better outcome in this metric. For example, a corporation may use futarchy to decide whether or not to fire their CEO. Two markets would be created, one for the future stock price if the CEO is kept, and one for the future stock price if they are fired. Upon market closure, the CEO is either kept or fired, depending on which market shows a higher future stock price. Market participants in the market for the enacted decision then either profit or incur a loss depending on the accuracy of their prediction. This method can be used for any type of governance, including nation states, corporations, DAOs, or nonprofit entities.
State Channels
Raiden Network is a proposed extension to Ethereum which scales-out asset transfer capacity. It's inspired by the Lightning Network which leverages off-chain asset transfers to carry out the vast majority of transactions. Our development team works closely together with the Raiden team to make Gnosis the first decentralized prediction market to scale to thousands of markets.
Base Layer

Gnosis Core

(no fees)
Oracles
Gnosis offers a wide range of different oracle solutions to resolve markets. The ultimate oracle offers a secure decentralized oracle as a backstop solution for centralized oracles. Most events are covered with 3rd party integrations to other oracle providers like RealityKeys and Oraclize.
Market Makers
Automated market makers calculate prices for event outcome tokens based on demand using a logarithmic market scoring rule. Gnosis is implementing the LMSR market maker designed by Robin Hanson.
Outcome Tokens
An outcome token is created for every possible outcome of an event. The price of the outcome token represents the market’s probability estimate for this particular outcome. An outcome token pays out 1 if the corresponding outcome occurs and 0 otherwise.
Built on

Ethereum Blockchain

Ethereum

Gnosis is built on Ethereum, a next generation blockchain protocol enabling advanced smart contracts.

Ethereum is censorship resistant, globally available, and provides transparent guarantees about future operations of the platform. With Ethereum, we can eliminate middlemen and counterparty risk.

Forums

Join us in our forum or slack to learn more about prediction markets, how to use gnosis, and to meet the team!

Partners

Advisors

Vitalik Buterin

Advisor

Co-founder of Ethereum,
Ethereum Chief Scientist.

Joe Lubin

Board Member

Founder of ConsenSys,
Co-founder of Ethereum.

Jeremy Millar

Board Member

COS Consensys,

Founding Board Member Enterprise Ethereum Alliance

Jason Trost

Advisor

Founder and CEO of Smarkets (>$1.5B betting exchange).

James Slazas

Advisor

Director of Capital Markets ConsenSys Enterprise, 15+ years financial markets experience, Co-founded hedge fund managing portfolio of life settlements.

Robin Hanson

Advisor

Futarchy Inventor, LMSR Inventor, Associate professor of economics at George Mason University, Research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University.

Paolo Rebuffo

Advisor

Founder of the Eidoo Foundation, Senior strategist of Digital Identity Sa

Team

Martin Köppelmann

Co-Founder, CEO

Prediction market expert making conceptional design decisions.

Stefan George

Co-Founder, CTO

Leads development and architectural design of Gnosis.

Matt Liston

Chief Strategist

Advances strategy, communications, and business development.

Denís Granha

Full Stack Engineer

Drives the development of backend and frontend forward.

Milad Mostavi

Full Stack Developer

Works closely with designers and is responsible for user-facing code.

Vlad Todirut

Art Director

Responsible for creative direction, works closely with ux and front end.

Giacomo Licari

Full Stack Engineer

Designs and develops backend and frontend applications together with the development team.

Alan Lu

Researcher

Finds suitable models and algorithm implementations.

Dr. Friederike Ernst

Director of Operations

Structures, organizes and directs company operations.

Rami Khalil

Security Engineer

Decentralized Exchange Engineer and Futarchy Researcher.

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